I’ve seen and heard it all before. When I started my career in 1995, I really didn’t have much idea what was going on in the world. All I knew was that I had a real estate licence and I wanted to sell real estate, so I found people who wanted to buy and sell. I had no idea I was entering a tough market.
Thirty years later, here I am still selling real estate but now with a much better understanding of what’s happening around me, what’s driving buyers, and what’s holding them back. Today, much like in 1995, there’s uncertainty in the market. The late ’80s and early ’90s were boom times, much like the period leading up to 2023.
Looking back, I see a lot of similarities between then and now. One thing I’m hearing again is the same thing I heard back then: “Why would I buy real estate when I can make 20–30% on the stock market?” And honestly, I don’t blame them! A lot of people have made good money in the stock market over the last few years, just like during the dot-com boom in the ’90s. It’s hard to take money out of a soaring stock market, especially when governments are adding taxes, implementing new rules, and restricting what we can do with our properties.
In the ’90s, NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) was introduced. Today, with tariffs looming, new agreements are being renegotiated. In the ’90s, Canada was divided over Quebec’s push to separate. Today, there’s talk of separation coming out of Alberta. Globally, we’re seeing widespread tension, much like during the Gulf War. Ask any developer who was building back then and building now, and they’ll tell you the same thing: you have to get creative to sell your product. Changes are happening faster than ever, and we’re going through another technology renaissance just like in the 90’s when mobile phones, personal computers, and the World Wide Web exploded onto the scene.
If you’ve been around as long as I have, or longer, I’m sure you could give me even more examples of history repeating itself. Even the style from the 1990s has come back around! From fashion to design trends it reminds us that cycles don’t just happen in the economy, they happen everywhere.
Anyone wondering what it will take for the market to boom again just needs to look at what happened before: a steady 20+ year run of building, investment, and infrastructure growth that pushed prices upward. There is definitely a need for new homes. There are people who can afford to buy and who want to buy. I recently hosted an open house where 35 groups came through in just two hours. Some of them were families I met last year with pregnant women, now with strollers in tow! There’s a real pent-up demand for homeownership.
Many have put off buying over the past couple of years, some enjoyed gains in the stock market, but as we’ve seen, things can change quickly. At the end of the day, many would rather own their own home than rent. They want to build equity for themselves, not pay off their landlord’s mortgage. Homeownership brings a sense of security that renting simply can’t.
Higher interest rates have put first-time buyers and upsizers on hold, while a lack of available options has made many downsizers delay their plans as well. But now we’re seeing rates drop, helping affordability return. We’re also heading into a federal election, which will bring change. The tariff situation will get figured out. Regardless of who wins, this election has surfaced real concerns that will need to be addressed. What do you think will happen when lower rates, renewed buyer confidence, and a government focused on solving today’s issues all come together?
Right now, I feel we’re in a very similar situation to the late ’90s. The difference today is that change happens much faster. If things started booming in 2000, I believe we could see things start booming next year, setting the stage for another great real estate run.
